St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4
- Miles MikolasPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pozo singled to left, Burleson scored and Herrera scored, Walker to third.6–1
- 7Burleson singled to center, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.4–1
- 5Walker homered to center (405 feet).3–1
- 3García Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Young scored, Wood out at second.2–1
- 2Burleson singled to center, Church scored and Saggese scored, Herrera to second.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML STL -126 / WSH +104
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- STL: Elo 54.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −16 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +28 Elo | STL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 6.41st of 30 |
| 25th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 6.530th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 1–430th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15282nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301479 | Elo rating | 145128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–6 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4–1 | 9–1–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 8–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 14–7 WSH in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.