St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Curtis MeadBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Lile scored on O'Brien wild pitch, Vivas to third on wild pitch by O'Brien.7–6
- 10Lile scored on O'Brien wild pitch, Vivas to third on wild pitch by O'Brien.7–6
- 10Wetherholt doubled to right, Saggese scored.7–5
- 10Saggese doubled to center, Winn scored.6–5
- 8Church homered to right (378 feet), Winn scored.5–5
- 7Walker homered to right center (386 feet).3–5
- 6Mead singled to center, Wood scored.2–5
- 5Abrams singled to right, Lile scored, Wiemer to third.2–4
- 5Mead homered to center (398 feet).2–3
- 3Wood homered to left center (394 feet).2–2
- 1Lile singled to center, Wood scored, House to third.2–1
- 1Gorman singled to right, Burleson scored, Gorman thrown out at second, Walker to third.2–0
- 1Walker grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Wetherholt scored on error, Burleson safe at second on fielding error by shortstop Abrams.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 52%
- ML STL -102 / WSH -118
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- WSH: Elo 47.9%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- WSH -107
- STL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.4 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −1 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +15 Elo | STL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 6.44th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 6.530th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–3 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15341st of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 145228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4–1 | 8–1–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 8–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 13–7 WSH in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.