Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to left (362 feet).8–6
- 9Frelick singled to center, Rengifo scored.8–5
- 8Mitchell singled to left, Turang scored on error and Yelich scored on throwing error by left fielder Anthony, Mitchell to third. Boston Red Sox challenged: call on the field was upheld.7–5
- 5Turang grounded into fielder's choice to first, Hamilton scored, Perkins out at second.5–5
- 4Contreras hit a ground rule double, Rafaela scored, Yoshida to third.4–5
- 4Rafaela singled to center, Durbin scored.4–4
- 4Bauers walked, Contreras scored, Mitchell to second, Yelich to third.4–3
- 4Mitchell reached on infield single to pitcher, Turang scored, Yelich to second, Contreras to third.3–3
- 4Yelich reached on infield single to third, Hamilton scored, Contreras to second, Turang to third.2–3
- 4Frelick scored, Contreras safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Durbin, Turang to second, Hamilton to third.1–3
- 3Story hit sacrifice fly to center, Yoshida scored.0–3
- 3Abreu grounded into fielder's choice to second, Anthony scored, Contreras out at second, Yoshida to third.0–2
- 1Story singled to right, Anthony scored, Contreras to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML MIL -126 / BOS +104
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- BOS +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.1 – 3.9 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −11 | MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +43 Elo | MIL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.7 | Runs scored | 3.326th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.022nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.1 | Margin | −1.727th of 30 |
| 5th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–224th of 30 |
| 25th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 15139th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301552 | Elo rating | 151510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–2 | 2–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 2–7 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–3 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.