San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Miguel AndujarBatting3-5
- Randy VasquezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Roman AnthonyBatting2-4
- Connelly EarlyPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Laureano singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored on error, Laureano to second, Laureano safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Anthony.3–2
- 8Monasterio grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Rafaela scored, Anthony out at second.2–2
- 3Fermin doubled to left, Andujar scored, Machado to third.2–1
- 2Mayer hit sacrifice fly to center, Contreras scored.1–1
- 2Johnson grounded out to shortstop, Fermin scored, France to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML SD +123 / BOS -149
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.7%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -133
- SD +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.4 – 4.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +3 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +11 Elo | BOS 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 3.127th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −1.726th of 30 |
| 24th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
| 16th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150812th of 30 |
| 8th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15179th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 0–3 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4–1 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 5–5 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.