San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting3-4
- Adrian HouserPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Padres- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bogaerts walked, Sheets scored, Tatis Jr. to second, Johnson to third.1–7
- 8Tatis Jr. reached on infield single to third, Cronenworth scored, Johnson to second, Sheets to third.1–6
- 8Laureano homered to left center (393 feet), Machado scored.1–5
- 7Bader singled to left, Arraez scored.1–3
- 6Sheets doubled to center, Laureano scored, Cronenworth to third.0–3
- 5Sheets scored on error, Bogaerts safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Chapman, Bogaerts safe at second on error, Tatis Jr. safe at third on error.0–2
- 1Merrill scored on error, Machado safe at first on error by first baseman Schmitt.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 58%
- ML SF +126 / SD -153
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SD: Elo 54.7%, market 57.7%
- Fair odds
- SD -137
- SF +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.7 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +4 | SF: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +32 Elo | SD 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 57.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 302.6 | Runs scored | 2.429th of 30 |
| 11th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.0 | Margin | −2.629th of 30 |
| 1st of 172–0 | Road vs home | 1–416th of 17 |
| 2nd of 301534 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15178th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 1–3–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–3–1 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 16–25 SD in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 41.