San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- German MarquezPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee singled to left, Oliva scored.9–3
- 6Arraez hit sacrifice fly to center, Devers scored.8–3
- 6Ramos singled to right, Adames scored and Bailey scored, Devers to third.7–3
- 6Adames singled to center, Bader scored, Bailey to second.5–3
- 3Andujar singled to right, Merrill scored.4–3
- 3Bogaerts grounded out to shortstop, Machado scored, Merrill to second.4–2
- 3Merrill singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to third.4–1
- 3Chapman homered to left (349 feet).4–0
- 1Lee doubled to right, Chapman scored and Ramos scored.3–0
- 1Adames homered to left (338 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML SF -131 / SD +109
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- SF: Elo 48.6%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- SD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.9 – 3.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −34 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: German Marquez: team allows 1.72 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +9 Elo | SD 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 301.0 | Runs scored | 2.328th of 30 |
| 11th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.8 | Margin | −1.826th of 30 |
| 1st of 171–0 | Road vs home | 1–316th of 17 |
| 2nd of 301537 | Opponent Elo | 150119th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15208th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–90 | 90–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–62 | 42–52 |
| Underdog | 43–28 | 48–23 |
| Overs–unders | 79–83 | 71–94 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 15–25 SD in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 40.