San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Harrison BaderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Merrill homered to right (387 feet), Cronenworth scored.3–2
- 4Schmitt singled to left, Lee scored, Bailey to third.3–0
- 4Bailey singled to left, Chapman scored, Lee to second.2–0
- 3Bader homered to left center (408 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML SF -102 / SD -118
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- SD: Elo 56.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- SD -107
- SF +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +6 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +46 Elo | SD 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 300.3 | Runs scored | 2.328th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−4.0 | Margin | −2.024th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301544 | Opponent Elo | 150514th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Elo rating | 15218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–90 | 90–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–62 | 42–52 |
| Underdog | 43–28 | 48–23 |
| Overs–unders | 79–83 | 71–94 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 14–25 SD in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 39.