Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting4-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Altuve homered to left (368 feet).1–8
- 7Walker doubled to center, Correa scored.1–7
- 7Altuve homered to left (383 feet).1–6
- 7Abreu hit a ground rule double, Duran scored, Contreras to third.1–5
- 6Diaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Smith scored.0–5
- 5Matthews homered to center (434 feet).0–4
- 3Alvarez homered to right (394 feet), Altuve scored.0–3
- 1Correa grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Altuve scored, Paredes out at second, Alvarez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML BOS -131 / HOU +109
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 51.1%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- HOU +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 4.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −10 | BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +8 Elo | BOS 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 5.56th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 6.326th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.818th of 30 |
| 9th of 161–2 | Road vs home | 2–29th of 16 |
| 14th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 145229th of 30 |
| 8th of 301523 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  BOS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–80 | 80–82 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 40–57 | 36–63 |
| Underdog | 45–23 | 44–19 |
| Overs–unders | 78–87 | 75–87 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–11 HOU in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 19.