Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Astros- Carlos CorreaBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schanuel homered to right (339 feet), Neto scored and Trout scored.9–11
- 6Meyers doubled to right, Diaz scored and Smith scored.6–11
- 6Diaz singled to right, Correa scored and Walker scored, Smith to third.6–9
- 6Walker reached on infield single to shortstop, Paredes scored, Correa to second.6–7
- 6Correa reached on infield single to catcher, Alvarez scored on throwing error by catcher O'Hoppe and Loperfido scored, Paredes safe at third on error.6–6
- 6Meyers scored on Ureña wild pitch, Loperfido to second on wild pitch by Ureña.6–4
- 6Meyers scored on Ureña wild pitch, Loperfido to second on wild pitch by Ureña.6–4
- 5Correa singled to left, Paredes scored.6–3
- 5Paredes doubled to left, Altuve scored and Meyers scored.6–2
- 5Neto scored on Teng wild pitch, Soler to second on wild pitch by Teng.6–0
- 5Neto scored on Teng wild pitch, Soler to second on wild pitch by Teng.6–0
- 5Schanuel grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Peraza scored, Trout out at second, Neto to third.5–0
- 5Trout singled to left, O'Hoppe scored, Neto to second, Peraza to third.4–0
- 4Soler homered to left (363 feet), Trout scored.3–0
- 3Peraza homered to left center (358 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML LAA +113 / HOU -136
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 59.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -123
- LAA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −11 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +66 Elo | HOU 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 25th of 3033–48 | Road vs home | 46–3512th of 30 |
| 4th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 30 |
| 27th of 301457 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–83 | 80–82 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–33 | 36–63 |
| Underdog | 66–50 | 44–19 |
| Overs–unders | 88–74 | 75–87 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 15–26 HOU in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 41.