Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jason AlexanderPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Trout homered to right center (395 feet).3–4
- 7Taylor singled to right, Guzman scored.3–3
- 5Guzman doubled to left, Moore scored.3–2
- 4Trout homered to center (413 feet).3–1
- 4Cole stole home, Urías stole second.3–0
- 4Cole stole home, Urías stole second.3–0
- 4Cole doubled to left, Diaz scored.2–0
- 4Walker homered to center (408 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 55%
- ML HOU -135 / LAA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -124
- LAA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 4.0 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +11 | HOU: Jason Alexander: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +41 Elo | HOU 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 9th of 3039–39 | Road vs home | 38–4022nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301506 | Elo rating | 143827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–81 | 78–81 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 34–62 | 13–33 |
| Underdog | 44–19 | 65–48 |
| Overs–unders | 75–84 | 88–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 24–12 LAA in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 36.