Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sam AldegheriPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kieboom singled to center, Adell scored, Taylor to second.6–2
- 6Caratini homered to center (417 feet).6–1
- 5Matthews homered to left center (420 feet).5–1
- 5Urías homered to left (382 feet), Smith scored.4–1
- 5Diaz homered to left center (411 feet).2–1
- 1Trout homered to left center (443 feet).1–1
- 1Diaz singled to center, Dubón scored, Caratini to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML HOU -120 / LAA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- LAA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −5 | HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Sam Aldegheri: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +40 Elo | HOU 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 9th of 3040–40 | Road vs home | 39–4122nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 143727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–82 | 79–82 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 35–63 | 13–33 |
| Underdog | 44–19 | 66–49 |
| Overs–unders | 75–86 | 88–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 25–13 LAA in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 38.