Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Astros- Joey LoperfidoBatting2-4
- Hunter BrownPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schanuel homered to right (383 feet).3–0
- 8Peraza singled to left, Adell scored, O'Hoppe to third.2–0
- 7Trout homered to left (403 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 62%
- ML LAA +153 / HOU -186
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.8%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -165
- LAA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.5 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +13 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +91 Elo | HOU 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2025) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 25th of 3033–48 | Road vs home | 46–3512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 28th of 301451 | Elo rating | 150713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–83 | 80–82 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–33 | 36–63 |
| Underdog | 66–50 | 44–19 |
| Overs–unders | 88–74 | 75–87 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 13–26 HOU in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 39.