Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Tatsuya ImaiPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schanuel singled to right, Frazier scored, Trout to third.7–9
- 8Altuve doubled to center, Allen scored.6–9
- 8Paredes doubled to right, Alvarez scored and Smith scored.6–8
- 5Walker doubled to right, Altuve scored and Paredes scored.6–6
- 4Neto homered to left (365 feet), d'Arnaud scored.6–4
- 3Adell singled to left, Soler scored.4–4
- 3Soler doubled to left, Neto scored, Schanuel scored and Trout scored.3–4
- 2Paredes safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Moncada, Vázquez scored, Alvarez to third.0–4
- 2Alvarez singled to right, Smith scored, Vázquez to third.0–3
- 2Vázquez singled to right, Loperfido scored and Walker scored, Smith to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 61%
- ML LAA +144 / HOU -175
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.1%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- HOU -155
- LAA +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 5.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | −4 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 1.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Tatsuya Imai (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +86 Elo | HOU 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 306.0 | Runs scored | 4.312th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 6.024th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −1.724th of 30 |
| 2nd of 152–1 | Road vs home | 1–211th of 15 |
| 17th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 145627th of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 150217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  LAA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–83 | 80–82 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–33 | 36–63 |
| Underdog | 66–50 | 44–19 |
| Overs–unders | 88–74 | 75–87 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 15–27 HOU in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 42.