Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Astros- Carlos CorreaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Anthony homered to left center (391 feet).4–6
- 8Abreu homered to right (372 feet).3–6
- 7Vázquez homered to left center (379 feet).2–6
- 5Correa homered to left (402 feet), Altuve scored and Alvarez scored.2–5
- 2Duran grounded out to shortstop, Kiner-Falefa scored, Wong to third.2–2
- 1Walker singled to left, Paredes scored, Correa to second.1–2
- 1Paredes doubled to center, Alvarez scored.1–1
- 1Contreras singled to center, Duran scored, Yoshida to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML BOS -143 / HOU +119
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -129
- HOU +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.8 – 3.2 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −2 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +5 Elo | BOS 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 302.6 | Runs scored | 6.52nd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.6 | Margin | +1.85th of 30 |
| 14th of 171–4 | Road vs home | 4–26th of 17 |
| 16th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 147526th of 30 |
| 8th of 301517 | Elo rating | 151012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–4 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–13 HOU in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 21.