Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rafaela homered to right (337 feet).2–9
- 7Smith homered to right (346 feet).1–9
- 6Correa singled to left, Alvarez scored and Meyers scored, Altuve to second.1–8
- 5Walker scored on throwing error by catcher Wong, Loperfido stole second, Loperfido safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Mayer.1–6
- 5Walker scored on throwing error by catcher Wong, Loperfido stole second, Loperfido safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Mayer.1–6
- 5Loperfido singled to left, Correa scored, Walker to third.1–5
- 5Alvarez homered to right (399 feet).1–4
- 5Wong doubled to center, Mayer scored.1–3
- 3Walker singled to left, Altuve scored and Correa scored.0–3
- 1Alvarez doubled to center, Peña scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 56%
- ML BOS +119 / HOU -143
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -129
- BOS +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.5 – 4.0 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +14 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +25 Elo | HOU 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 6.03rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.224th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.810th of 30 |
| 12th of 171–3 | Road vs home | 3–28th of 17 |
| 17th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 146826th of 30 |
| 9th of 301520 | Elo rating | 150714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  BOS |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–80 | 80–82 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 40–57 | 36–63 |
| Underdog | 45–23 | 44–19 |
| Overs–unders | 78–87 | 75–87 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–12 HOU in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 20.