San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Red Sox- Marcelo MayerBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Mayer homered to right center (385 feet), Abreu scored.2–5
- 6Contreras homered to center (423 feet).2–3
- 5Campusano doubled to center, Sheets scored.2–2
- 5Sheets singled to right, Andujar scored.1–2
- 4Durbin singled to center, Duran scored.0–2
- 3Rafaela singled to center, Mayer scored, Rafaela to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML SD +109 / BOS -132
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- SD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 4.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −15 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS 0 Elo | BOS 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 2.828th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.325th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.2 | Margin | −2.529th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150514th of 30 |
| 8th of 301519 | Elo rating | 15159th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3–1 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 5–4 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.