San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Sheets scored.8–6
- 8Merrill homered to left center (384 feet).7–6
- 7Yoshida doubled to second, Abreu scored and Contreras scored.6–6
- 5Machado homered to left (365 feet), Campusano scored and Merrill scored.6–4
- 4Castellanos singled to left, Machado scored and Merrill scored, Bogaerts to second.3–4
- 4Merrill singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.1–4
- 3Yoshida doubled to right, Abreu scored.0–4
- 3Abreu tripled to right, Duran scored.0–3
- 3Duran doubled to right, Anthony scored and Narváez scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 58%
- ML SD +129 / BOS -156
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -140
- SD +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.4 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD 0 Elo | SD 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 3.026th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −1.626th of 30 |
| 9th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 29 |
| 16th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 151010th of 30 |
| 8th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15169th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5–1 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5–1 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–5 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.