Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-3, 1 RBI
- Luinder AvilaPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Witt Jr. reached on infield single to second, Thomas scored.5–2
- 7Thomas doubled to left, Loftin scored.5–1
- 3Mitchell homered to right center (420 feet), Contreras scored and Yelich scored.5–0
- 1Mitchell doubled to center, Rengifo scored and Yelich scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML MIL -115 / KC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.2 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −5 | MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Luinder Avila (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +40 Elo | MIL 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 307.5 | Runs scored | 3.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+4.7 | Margin | −0.821st of 30 |
| 27th of 301468 | Opponent Elo | 149520th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301551 | Elo rating | 150316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | — | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–3 KC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.