Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Garcia scored on Koenig wild pitch, Pasquantino to second on wild pitch by Koenig, Witt Jr. to third on wild pitch by Koenig.2–8
- 6Garcia scored on Koenig wild pitch, Pasquantino to second on wild pitch by Koenig, Witt Jr. to third on wild pitch by Koenig.2–8
- 6Isbel scored, Pasquantino safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Bauers, Witt Jr. to second, Garcia to third.2–7
- 6Garcia doubled to left, Collins scored, Isbel to third.2–6
- 6Isbel singled to center, Jensen scored, Collins to second.2–5
- 6Collins singled to center, India scored, Jensen to second.2–4
- 6Perez homered to center (417 feet).2–3
- 3Mitchell doubled to right, Turang scored.2–2
- 3Turang tripled to left, Hamilton scored.1–2
- 2Jensen doubled to right, India scored and Perez scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML MIL -105 / KC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- KC: Elo 46.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 4.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −5 | MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +26 Elo | MIL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 307.1 | Runs scored | 3.622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.7 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+4.4 | Margin | −1.124th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 29 |
| 26th of 301474 | Opponent Elo | 150316th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301553 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–1 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–1 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 1–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 1–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–3 KC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.