Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lockridge singled to center, Bauers scored.8–5
- 9Bauers doubled to center, Yelich scored.7–5
- 7Pasquantino singled to left, Collins scored and India scored, Garcia to second.6–5
- 7Garcia singled to left, Marte scored, Collins to second, India to third.6–3
- 7Contreras singled to left, Turang scored and Rengifo scored.6–2
- 4Perkins doubled to left, Lockridge scored.4–2
- 3Garcia homered to left (388 feet), India scored.3–2
- 1Sánchez homered to left center (414 feet), Yelich scored.3–0
- 1Yelich tripled to left, Contreras scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML MIL +102 / KC -122
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- KC: Elo 47.2%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- KC -111
- MIL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.6 – 3.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +19 Elo | MIL 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.5 | Runs scored | 4.117th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+3.1 | Margin | −0.313th of 30 |
| 10th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 29 |
| 26th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 150712th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301550 | Elo rating | 150416th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–2 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 2–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–4 KC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.