Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting0-1, 1 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Yelich grounded into fielder's choice to third, Frelick scored, Hamilton out at second, Perkins to third.2–3
- 7Hamilton hit by pitch, Ortiz scored, Perkins to second, Frelick to third.1–3
- 6Durbin grounded out to second, Abreu scored, Story to third.0–3
- 6Story doubled to left, Duran and Contreras scored, Abreu to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML MIL +135 / BOS -163
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 49.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -146
- MIL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 2.6 – 3.4 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +11 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +2 Elo | MIL 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.8 | Runs scored | 3.622nd of 30 |
| 10th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.323rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+3.0 | Margin | −1.727th of 30 |
| 4th of 303–1 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 30 |
| 24th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15166th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301553 | Elo rating | 151310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–3 BOS in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.