Milwaukee Brewers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting1-4
- Jake WoodfordPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Durbin grounded into fielder's choice to second, Abreu scored, Story out at second.0–5
- 7Story singled to left, Contreras scored, Abreu to third.0–4
- 3Story hit sacrifice fly to right, Monasterio scored.0–3
- 3Abreu reached on infield single to shortstop, Kiner-Falefa scored, Contreras to second, Monasterio to third.0–2
- 3Contreras walked, Rafaela scored, Monasterio to second, Kiner-Falefa to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML MIL +119 / BOS -143
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 46.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -129
- MIL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.5 – 4.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −9 | MIL: Shane Drohan (no track record yet) · BOS: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +23 Elo | MIL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.4 | Runs scored | 3.523rd of 30 |
| 9th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.022nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+2.6 | Margin | −1.526th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 30 |
| 7th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 2–326th of 30 |
| 24th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15195th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301552 | Elo rating | 151411th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–2 | 2–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 6–1 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–4 BOS in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.