Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jovani MoranPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Abreu singled to center, Durbin scored, Monasterio to third.6–13
- 7Monasterio singled to left, Anthony scored, Durbin to second.5–13
- 6Story singled to center, Contreras scored, Abreu to second.4–13
- 5Jeffers homered to left (386 feet).3–13
- 5Buxton homered to center (420 feet).3–12
- 3Duran homered to right center (424 feet), Durbin scored.3–11
- 3Durbin doubled to left, Anthony scored.1–11
- 2Kreidler homered to left (438 feet).0–11
- 2Caratini homered to left (423 feet), Jeffers scored and Bell scored.0–10
- 2Bell doubled to center, Martin scored and Keaschall scored, Jeffers to third.0–7
- 2Jeffers singled to left, Buxton scored, Keaschall to second, Martin to third.0–5
- 1Lee reached on infield single to shortstop, Jeffers scored. Wallner to second. Caratini scored on throwing error by shortstop Story.0–4
- 1Jeffers singled to left, Keaschall scored.0–2
- 1Keaschall doubled to left, Martin scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML BOS -163 / MIN +135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.7%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -146
- MIN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 3.6 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −2 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +40 Elo | BOS 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.59th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–6 | Road vs home | 5–22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 8th of 301522 | Elo rating | 148025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–10 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 8–7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 10–9 MIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.