Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Story doubled to right, Abreu scored and Duran scored.9–3
- 8Burleson homered to center (430 feet).7–3
- 6Gorman hit sacrifice fly to center, Herrera scored, Walker to second, Burleson to third.7–2
- 4Contreras singled to left, Duran scored.7–1
- 4Duran doubled to center, Durbin scored, Wong scored and Rafaela scored.6–1
- 2Walker homered to left center (432 feet).3–1
- 2Anthony grounded out to third, Story scored, Rafaela to second, Mayer to third.3–0
- 1Contreras homered to center (411 feet), Durbin scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BOS -118 / STL -102
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.5%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- BOS -107
- STL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.6 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −9 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +17 Elo | BOS 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.59th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 5–312th of 30 |
| 8th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149419th of 30 |
| 8th of 301519 | Elo rating | 148026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–10 | 7–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 6–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–7 | 7–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–6 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.