Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras singled to left, Durbin scored, Duran to second.7–1
- 9Duran singled to center, Anthony scored, Durbin to second.6–1
- 9Durbin singled to left, Narváez scored and Rafaela scored, Anthony to second.5–1
- 9Rafaela singled to center, Story scored, Narváez to second.3–1
- 8Walker homered to center (429 feet).2–1
- 4Contreras doubled to left, Duran scored and Anthony scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -136 / STL +113
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 48.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -123
- STL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 3.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +13 | BOS: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +9 Elo | STL 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 5–22nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 149122nd of 30 |
| 10th of 301516 | Elo rating | 148325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–10 | 7–6 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–8 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–7 | 6–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 4–6 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.