Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jac CaglianoneBatting3-3
- Seth LugoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Pérez homered to right (360 feet).1–2
- 5Isbel singled to right, Massey scored, Caglianone to third.1–1
- 3Rogers hit sacrifice fly to right, Báez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML KC +114 / DET -137
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- DET: Elo 51.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −11 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +9 Elo | DET 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–5 | Road vs home | 6–11st of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Elo rating | 150314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–8 | 7–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–12 | 7–8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 14–26 DET in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 40.