Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant TaylorPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-2, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harris scored on Schreiber wild pitch, Murakami to second on wild pitch by Schreiber, Vargas to third on wild pitch by Schreiber.6–5
- 7Harris scored on Schreiber wild pitch, Murakami to second on wild pitch by Schreiber, Vargas to third on wild pitch by Schreiber.6–5
- 6Benintendi walked, Murakami scored, Quero to second, Sosa to third.5–5
- 4Witt Jr. singled to center, Collins scored.4–5
- 4Collins singled to center, Caglianone scored.4–4
- 4Montgomery homered to right (384 feet), Sosa scored.4–3
- 3Jensen reached on infield single to pitcher, Garcia scored, Pasquantino to second, Witt Jr. to third.2–3
- 3Pasquantino walked, Isbel scored, Witt Jr. to second, Garcia to third.2–2
- 3Witt Jr. walked, Collins scored, Garcia to second, Isbel to third.2–1
- 2Murray homered to left (368 feet), Montgomery scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 62%
- ML CHW +152 / KC -185
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- KC: Elo 59.3%, market 62.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -164
- CHW +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.0 – 5.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +7 | CHW: Grant Taylor: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +66 Elo | KC 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 62.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 3.328th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.911th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–7 | Road vs home | 5–415th of 30 |
| 12th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 29th of 301445 | Elo rating | 150116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–9 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 4–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 11–31 KC in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 42.