Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Henderson homered to right center (387 feet), Ward scored.4–2
- 8Ward doubled to right, Alexander scored.2–2
- 5Mountcastle grounded out to shortstop, Basallo scored.1–2
- 3Sosa singled to center, Meidroth scored.0–2
- 3Meidroth doubled to left, Hill scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML BAL -150 / CHW +124
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 56.3%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -134
- CHW +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.6 – 2.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −14 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +44 Elo | BAL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.622nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 6.129th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | −2.530th of 30 |
| 21st of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–13rd of 30 |
| 25th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 15166th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301484 | Elo rating | 144829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | — |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 17–3 CHW in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 20.