Baltimore Orioles at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Henderson homered to right center (397 feet).4–5
- 7Ward doubled to center, Alexander scored.3–5
- 5O'Hearn hit sacrifice fly to center, Reynolds scored.2–5
- 5Rutschman doubled to center, Henderson scored.2–4
- 5Henderson doubled to right, Alexander scored.1–4
- 2Cruz singled to left, Davis scored.0–4
- 2Davis doubled to left, Triolo scored.0–3
- 2Triolo singled to right, Griffin scored.0–2
- 2Griffin doubled to center, O'Hearn scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML BAL -121 / PIT +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.2%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -110
- PIT +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −7 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +1 Elo | BAL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 13th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.58th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150415th of 30 |
| 21st of 301487 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–3 PIT in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.