Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-3
- Erick FeddePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sosa grounded out to shortstop, Murakami scored.2–1
- 6Henderson homered to right (389 feet).2–0
- 4O'Neill singled to left, Rutschman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML BAL -136 / CHW +113
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 47.9%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -123
- CHW +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +9 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Grant Taylor: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +15 Elo | CHW 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.920th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 6.630th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −2.730th of 30 |
| 28th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15205th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Elo rating | 144929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | — |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 16–3 CHW in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.