Baltimore Orioles at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Taylor WardBatting3-4
- Cade PovichPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Jackson singled to right, O'Neill scored, Beavers to second.2–8
- 6Cruz homered to center (415 feet), Mangum scored.1–8
- 4Alonso doubled to center, Ward scored.1–6
- 2O'Hearn doubled to center, Lowe scored and Cruz scored.0–6
- 2Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to right, Mangum scored.0–4
- 2Cruz reached on infield single to catcher, Horwitz scored, Mangum to second, Davis to third.0–3
- 1O'Hearn homered to center (402 feet), Reynolds scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML BAL +104 / PIT -126
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- BAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.9 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +17 | BAL: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +46 Elo | PIT 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 26th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
| 23rd of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150317th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–5 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.