Baltimore Orioles at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4
- Shane BazPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting3-4
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Yorke doubled to left, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to third.2–3
- 8Yorke scored on error, Mangum safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Nunez, Gonzales to second.2–2
- 4Horwitz hit sacrifice fly to left, Reynolds scored.2–1
- 4Taveras singled to right, Rutschman scored, Mayo to second, Beavers to third.2–0
- 4Beavers singled to right, Henderson scored, Rutschman to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML BAL -108 / PIT -112
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -102
- BAL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −6 | BAL: Shane Baz: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +13 Elo | PIT 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.910th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.611th of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
| 23rd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 150316th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301486 | Elo rating | 148721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–5 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–4 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.