Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting1-3
- Davis MartinPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Royals- Carter JensenBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Jensen homered to right (425 feet).0–2
- 4Witt Jr. doubled to left, Garcia scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 62%
- ML CHW +153 / KC -186
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- KC: Elo 59.0%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -165
- CHW +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.2 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +3 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +63 Elo | KC 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.1 | Margin | −1.126th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–5 | Road vs home | 3–421st of 30 |
| 10th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 150811th of 30 |
| 29th of 301447 | Elo rating | 149816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–7 | 6–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | — | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 6–7 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–5 | 4–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 11–29 KC in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 40.