Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Jonathan IndiaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rocchio homered to left center (377 feet).4–2
- 8India homered to left center (380 feet), Jensen scored.4–1
- 6Jensen homered to right (359 feet).2–1
- 4India singled to right, Pasquantino scored, Jensen to third.1–1
- 3Kwan homered to right (381 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 51%
- ML KC -105 / CLE -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -104
- KC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.5 – 3.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +3 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +40 Elo | CLE 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.228th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.67th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.414th of 30 |
| 16th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–18th of 30 |
| 10th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15332nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 151312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–5 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 19–20 CLE in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 39.