Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- CJ KayfusBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Parker MessickPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Happ singled to center, Hoerner scored, Bregman to third.5–6
- 8Hedges singled to left, Hoskins scored, Arias to second.4–6
- 8Arias singled to left, DeLauter scored, Hoskins to second.4–5
- 8Kayfus homered to right (352 feet).4–4
- 8Happ homered to right (382 feet).4–3
- 6Arias singled to center, Kayfus scored, Hoskins to third.3–3
- 6DeLauter hit sacrifice fly to center, Martínez scored.3–2
- 6Kayfus singled to right, Kwan scored, Martínez to third.3–1
- 6Swanson homered to left center (380 feet), Kelly scored.3–0
- 3Shaw homered to right (355 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML CHC -121 / CLE +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 45.9%, market 52.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -110
- CLE +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.6 – 3.4 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +12 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Parker Messick: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +28 Elo | CLE 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 2.928th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.46th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.620th of 30 |
| 11th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 29 |
| 27th of 301467 | Opponent Elo | 15342nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301525 | Elo rating | 151212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4–1 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4–1 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–6 CLE in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.