Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Miguel AmayaBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Guardians- CJ KayfusBatting1-2
- Slade CecconiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Amaya singled to right, Carlson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML CHC -131 / CLE +109
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.1%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.9 – 3.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −18 | CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +8 Elo | CHC 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.324th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.518th of 30 |
| 25th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
| 27th of 301461 | Opponent Elo | 15352nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301524 | Elo rating | 151312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3–1 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3–1 | 3–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–6 CLE in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.