Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting2-4
- Colin ReaPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Chase DeLauterBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7DeLauter homered to right (402 feet), Kwan scored.1–4
- 7Arias homered to right (358 feet).1–2
- 5DeLauter singled to left, Schneemann scored, Arias thrown out at home.1–1
- 3Amaya doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 50%
- ML CHC -112 / CLE -108
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 49.9%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -102
- CLE +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 3.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +2 | CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +1 Elo | CLE 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.125th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.022nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301453 | Opponent Elo | 15361st of 30 |
| 6th of 301526 | Elo rating | 151112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–3 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | — |
| Underdog | — | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2–1 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–5 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.