Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Logan O'HoppeBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting1-1
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6O'Hoppe reached on infield single to third, Soler scored and Candelario scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 56%
- ML LAA +119 / CHC -143
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 63.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -129
- LAA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.0 – 3.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +13 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +99 Elo | CHC 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 6.04th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 5.022nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.09th of 30 |
| 9th of 172–3 | Road vs home | 2–212th of 17 |
| 10th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 145528th of 30 |
| 28th of 301452 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  LAA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–83 | 80–90 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–33 | 52–61 |
| Underdog | 66–50 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders | 88–74 | 84–86 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–6 CHC in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 10.