Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Yoan MoncadaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan JohnsonPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Swanson singled to center, Hoerner scored.2–7
- 7Moncada homered to right (379 feet), Soler scored.2–6
- 3Ballesteros singled to right, Crow-Armstrong and Hoerner scored.0–6
- 3Happ homered to left center (378 feet).0–4
- 1Kelly singled to right, Happ and Crow-Armstrong scored.0–3
- 1Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to left, Busch scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 63%
- ML LAA +159 / CHC -194
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.3%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -171
- LAA +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.4 – 5.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −5 | LAA: Ryan Johnson (no track record yet) · CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +73 Elo | CHC 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 306.3 | Runs scored | 5.77th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 6.024th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.315th of 30 |
| 5th of 152–2 | Road vs home | 1–213th of 16 |
| 14th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 145727th of 30 |
| 28th of 301454 | Elo rating | 15247th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2025) |  LAA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–83 | 80–90 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–33 | 52–61 |
| Underdog | 66–50 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders | 88–74 | 84–86 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 4–5 CHC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.