Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-3
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Shaw singled to right, Kelly scored, Busch to second.2–6
- 6Trout scored on error, Soler safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Bregman, Adell to second.2–5
- 6Adell singled to center, Neto scored, Trout to third.1–5
- 3Crow-Armstrong reached on infield single to second, Busch scored, Shaw to second.0–5
- 3Shaw singled to center, Kelly scored, Busch to third.0–4
- 3Swanson hit sacrifice fly to left, Happ scored.0–3
- 3Bregman singled to center, Hoerner scored.0–2
- 3Hoerner doubled to center, Amaya scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 59%
- ML LAA +135 / CHC -163
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.5%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -146
- LAA +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 2.6 – 3.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −6 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +82 Elo | CHC 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 4th of 173–3 | Road vs home | 2–315th of 17 |
| 9th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 145528th of 30 |
| 28th of 301455 | Elo rating | 15246th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | — | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 2–2–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 2–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–6 CHC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.