Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Luinder AvilaPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Martínez homered to right center (374 feet), Hedges scored, Rocchio scored and Kwan scored.2–10
- 8Rocchio singled to right, Brito scored, Hedges to second.2–6
- 5Brito doubled to right, Hoskins scored.2–5
- 5Marte doubled to center, Thomas scored on fielding error by center fielder Kwan.2–4
- 4Witt Jr. doubled to left, Garcia scored.1–4
- 2Ramírez doubled to right, Kwan scored, Martínez to third.0–4
- 1Hoskins doubled to left, DeLauter scored.0–3
- 1DeLauter doubled to center, Fry scored and Ramírez scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 55%
- ML KC -136 / CLE +113
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- KC: Elo 44.7%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -123
- CLE +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.7 – 3.3 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +4 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +37 Elo | CLE 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 3.029th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.47th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 16th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–213th of 30 |
| 8th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15291st of 30 |
| 16th of 301503 | Elo rating | 151212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–5 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 20–21 CLE in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 41.