Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Carter JensenBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rocchio singled to right, Kayfus scored, Naylor to second.1–2
- 5Kwan singled to left, Hedges scored.1–1
- 2Jensen homered to right center (389 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML KC +102 / CLE -122
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.8%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -111
- KC +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 2.9 – 3.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +6 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +26 Elo | CLE 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.128th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.67th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 11th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 30 |
| 10th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15312nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 151111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–5 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–7 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 20–20 CLE in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 40.