Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting2-4
- Seth LugoPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Acuña hit sacrifice fly to right, Benintendi scored, Harris to third.2–0
- 4Montgomery doubled to right, Murakami scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 62%
- ML CHW +149 / KC -181
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- KC: Elo 61.7%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- KC -160
- CHW +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.0 – 5.0 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −1 | CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +83 Elo | KC 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.820th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 3–315th of 30 |
| 9th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15148th of 30 |
| 29th of 301445 | Elo rating | 150017th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–7 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 10–29 KC in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 39.