Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Taylor WardBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Dustin HarrisBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ward doubled to center, Henderson scored.5–3
- 6Beavers hit sacrifice fly to right, O'Neill scored, Mountcastle to third.4–3
- 6Alonso scored on a passed ball by McGuire, Mountcastle to second on passed ball by McGuire, O'Neill to third on passed ball by McGuire.3–3
- 6Alonso scored on a passed ball by McGuire, Mountcastle to second on passed ball by McGuire, O'Neill to third on passed ball by McGuire.3–3
- 5Montgomery walked, Meidroth scored on error by pitcher Bradish, Montgomery to second, Murakami to second, Murakami safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Bradish.2–3
- 3Rutschman grounded out to shortstop, Ward scored.2–2
- 3Ward doubled to left, Henderson scored.1–2
- 2Acuña singled to center, Harris scored.0–2
- 2Harris singled to center, Benintendi scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 57%
- ML BAL -149 / CHW +123
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.6%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -133
- CHW +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.1 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −3 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +32 Elo | BAL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.525th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.929th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −2.530th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 16th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 3–214th of 30 |
| 25th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 15119th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Elo rating | 144629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–7 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | — |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 18–3 CHW in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 21.