Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Maikel GarciaBatting1-4
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Dingler doubled to left, McGonigle scored.1–2
- 8McKinstry scored on Mears wild pitch.1–1
- 8McKinstry scored on Mears wild pitch.1–1
- 2Jensen grounded into fielder's choice to first, Pasquantino scored, India out at second, Marte to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML KC +107 / DET -128
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- DET: Elo 54.5%, market 53.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -116
- KC +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −2 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +31 Elo | DET 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.610th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 302–4 | Road vs home | 5–11st of 30 |
| 16th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149519th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Elo rating | 150215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–8 | 7–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–11 | 7–7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 14–25 DET in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 39.