Miami Marlins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Kevin McGonigleBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lopez homered to left center (377 feet).2–8
- 8McGonigle scored on Phillips wild pitch, Torres to second on wild pitch by Phillips.1–8
- 8McGonigle scored on Phillips wild pitch, Torres to second on wild pitch by Phillips.1–8
- 7Lopez hit sacrifice fly to right, Marsee scored.1–7
- 6Báez singled to center, Torkelson scored, Báez to second, McKinstry to third.0–7
- 6Carpenter homered to right (363 feet), Greene scored.0–6
- 5McGonigle homered to right center (408 feet).0–4
- 1Dingler homered to left (404 feet), Keith scored and Greene scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 60%
- ML MIA +141 / DET -171
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- DET: Elo 55.2%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -152
- MIA +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.5 – 3.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +13 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +36 Elo | DET 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.117th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 4–11st of 30 |
| 27th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 149618th of 30 |
| 24th of 301484 | Elo rating | 149917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–10 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5–1 | 6–7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–5 DET in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.