Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Connelly EarlyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Twins- Ryan KreidlerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kreidler homered to left (385 feet), Wallner scored and Lee scored.9–5
- 9Lee singled to left, Gray scored, Wallner to second.9–2
- 6Story doubled to right, Anthony scored and Rafaela scored.9–1
- 5Wong hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Monasterio scored, Mayer to second.7–1
- 5Monasterio doubled to center, Duran scored.6–1
- 3Story homered to left center (411 feet), Rafaela scored and Yoshida scored.5–1
- 3Masataka Yoshida reaches on a fielder's choice. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Roman Anthony scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd. Masataka Yoshida to 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Luke Keaschall. Fielding error by second baseman Luke Keaschall.2–1
- 1Martin homered to left (406 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BOS -136 / MIN +113
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.1%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -123
- MIN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.5 – 4.0 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +3 | BOS: Connelly Early: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +15 Elo | BOS 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–8 | Road vs home | 7–22nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 10th of 301515 | Elo rating | 148723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–12 | 12–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–10 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 9–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 10–11 MIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.