Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kris BubicPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Keith singled to right, Greene scored.9–10
- 9Greene doubled to right, McGonigle scored and Torres scored.9–9
- 9Pasquantino homered to right (412 feet).9–7
- 7Carpenter hit sacrifice fly to left, McGonigle scored.8–7
- 7Perez homered to left (379 feet), Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored.8–6
- 7Witt Jr. reached on infield single to second, Thomas scored, Garcia to second.5–6
- 7Garcia singled to right, Caglianone scored, Thomas to third.4–6
- 7Caglianone singled to center, India scored.3–6
- 6Perez hit sacrifice fly to left, Witt Jr. scored.2–6
- 5Dingler homered to left (411 feet), Jones scored.1–6
- 5Jones singled to left, Torres scored.1–4
- 5Torres doubled to left, Báez scored.1–3
- 4Vierling singled to left, Greene scored.1–2
- 4Jensen reached on infield single to third, Witt Jr. scored.1–1
- 2Torkelson doubled to left, Vierling scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 51%
- ML KC -114 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- KC: Elo 45.2%, market 51.0%
- Fair odds
- KC -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.3 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +17 | KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +33 Elo | DET 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 51.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.118th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.79th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 302–6 | Road vs home | 7–11st of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Elo rating | 150414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–8 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–6 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–13 | 7–9–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 14–27 DET in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 41.