Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Dillon DinglerBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Red Sox- Willson ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Durbin doubled to left, Abreu scored.6–2
- 9Torres singled to right, Báez scored, Carpenter to second.6–1
- 5Dingler homered to center (397 feet), Torres scored and Vierling scored.5–1
- 5Jones homered to center (423 feet).2–1
- 1Contreras homered to left center (394 feet).1–1
- 1Dingler doubled to center, Vierling scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 56%
- ML DET +119 / BOS -143
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.1%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -129
- DET +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.2 – 3.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +1 | DET: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +29 Elo | BOS 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–9 | Road vs home | 4–418th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15059th of 30 |
| 14th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15169th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–12 | 6–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11–2 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 10–11 BOS in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.