Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Red Sox- Roman AnthonyBatting1-3
- Brayan BelloPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Wong grounded into double play, second to first, Abreu scored, Durbin out at second, Rafaela to third.4–1
- 4McGonigle singled to right, Báez scored.4–0
- 4Rogers hit sacrifice fly to center, Pérez scored.3–0
- 4Carpenter homered to right (396 feet).2–0
- 1Carpenter walked, McGonigle scored, Greene to second, Keith to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 56%
- ML DET -143 / BOS +119
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- DET: Elo 48.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -129
- BOS +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 3.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −11 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +8 Elo | BOS 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 4–316th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150411th of 30 |
| 14th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15188th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–12 | 6–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 8–10–2 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 9–11 BOS in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.